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The ruble is ready to set a new height of 73 rubles. per dollar



On Wednesday, February 24, trading in ruble pairs ended in decline. The dollar / ruble pair decreased by 1.02%, to 73.54 rubles, euro / ruble – by 1.00%, to 89.44 rubles, pound / ruble – by 0.56%, to 103.93 rubles … Trading at the Moscow Exchange opened with a strengthening in the Russian currency against the background of rising oil prices and increased demand for ruble liquidity due to the tax period. By the end of the week, exporting companies will have to pay VAT, MET, excise and income tax. The ruble received additional support from the reduction of sanctions risks and the continued demand for OFZs. During the summit on Monday, EU foreign ministers approved targeted sanctions against individual individuals. On the debt market, there was a slight increase in the government bond index (RGBI). Brent crude rose 3.44% to $ 67.25 per barrel. The price of oil rose despite data from the US Department of Energy, which indicated an unexpected increase in oil reserves in the country. Market participants ignored the data due to expectations of a quick lifting of restrictions and an increase in demand for oil and oil products. On Thursday, February 25, at trading in Asia, Brent crude oil costs $ 67.03 per barrel. The price is heading towards the level of $ 70 per barrel. The oil market and tax period will continue to have a positive impact on the ruble today. The dollar / ruble pair is expected to decline to the zone of 73.00-73.20 rubles. The Russian stock market closed lower on Wednesday. As a result of trading, the Moscow Exchange index amounted to 3385.48 points (-1.41%), the RTS index – 1445.91 points (-0.65%). The Russian market ignored the positive dynamics of raw materials and the growth of the S & P500 index. The indices fell, most likely amid geopolitics and the risks of US sanctions. Over the past seven days, the market has begun to show weakness. Geopolitics weighs on buyers. Now you need to monitor two levels: 3330 (Moscow Exchange) and 1414 (RTS). Their breakdown will cause panic selling among investors. SP500 futures are trading in positive territory, oil is getting more expensive. Today I would venture to consider a rebound in indices by 0.5-0.7% ._____________________ Vladislav Antonov, Analyst, IAC Alpari

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