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The ruble lost all profits in the American session

On Thursday, March 4, trading in ruble pairs ended with growth. The dollar / ruble pair increased by 0.99%, to 74.70 rubles, the euro / ruble – by 0.20%, to 89.45 rubles, the pound / ruble – by 0.47%, to 103.74 rubles … In the first half of the day, the ruble held up against foreign currencies on the back of higher oil prices and the Russian government bond index (RGBI). Brent crude jumped 5% on OPEC + decision not to increase production in April by 0.5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia also kept the 1 million cap. RGBI rose 0.52% to 149.03 points. The ruble lost all profits in the American session after the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. He did not give the markets what was expected of him. He was expected to answer the question of what policy the Fed is using to combat rising bond yields. Powell said he sees inflationary pressures rising in the future, but does not expect it to be strong enough to push the central bank to raise interest rates. His comments were interpreted by market participants as unwillingness to fight rising bond yields. The yield on 10-year US bonds jumped to 1.57%, hitting the 1.56% high hit last week amid concerns that rising inflation will force the Fed to tighten monetary policy faster than the market anticipates. dollar / ruble increased by 0.99%, to 74.70 rubles, euro / ruble – by 0.20%, to 89.45 rubles, pound / ruble – by 0.47%, to 103.74 rubles. The ruble weakened against the euro and the pound less due to their weakening against the dollar in the foreign exchange market. On Friday, March 5, at the auctions in Asia, oil remains trading in the positive zone. A barrel of Brent costs $ 67.34 per barrel. The yield on 10-year US bonds is 1.58% per annum. The dollar is now a defensive asset. Trading on the Moscow Exchange opened with a strengthening of the ruble. He managed to win back losses of about 0.35% with each currency. The focus of market participants is on the labor market report (NFP). It is expected that the United States in February created 182 thousand new jobs in the non-agricultural sector, and unemployment was 6.3%. Due to the rally in oil, the ruble still has a chance to return against the US dollar to the level of 73.90 rubles. Stock Market On Thursday, the Russian stock market showed mixed dynamics. Following the auction, the Moscow Exchange index amounted to 3397.56 points (-0.54%). During the day, the index dropped to 3366.76 points. The RTS index rose to 1,454.67 points (+ 0.07%). The indices were supported by a 5% increase in oil prices. At the beginning of the session, the index dropped to 1435.17. In the evening session, the indices managed to avoid falling after Jerome Powell’s speech. But the futures on the Moscow Exchange index fell to 335,025 rubles, the futures on the RTS index – by 141,090 rubles. On Friday, since the opening of the Moscow Exchange, futures for indices are growing against the background of rising oil prices. The dollar index is also growing, which can turn Russian indices down at any time. ____________________ Vladislav Antonov, Analyst, IAC “Alpari”

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