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The ruble remains weak in front of external factors at risk of falling to 75

On Friday, January 15, trading in ruble pairs showed multidirectional dynamics. The dollar / ruble pair rose 0.59% to RUB 73.64. The euro / ruble pair fell by 0.16%, to 88.92 rubles, the pound / ruble – by 0.41 %%, to 99.94 rubles. The ruble fell against the dollar on the back of a decline in oil prices, as well as a general strengthening of the US dollar against other major currencies on Forex due to the flight from risky assets before the weekend. Weakness of the euro and the “British” to it allowed the Russian currency to close in positive territory. The price of Brent crude oil fell 2.81% to $ 54.85 per barrel. Fears about the closure of Chinese cities due to outbreaks of coronavirus contributed to the decline in quotations. China on Friday reported the highest number of daily COVID-19 cases in more than 10 months. Over the past week, 685 cases were identified (including persons without symptoms – 1,199). More than 28 million people in the Celestial Empire were isolated. According to Friday data, the number of active drilling rigs in the US continued to grow over the week: from 275 to 287 units. This morning the oil price is near the $ 54.40 support. The dollar is trading in positive territory against major world currencies. Investors try to avoid risky assets. If the pressure increases at trading in Europe, there are risks to see the continuation of the downward correction in oil to $ 50.70 per barrel of Brent will not be difficult. The ruble and the stock market Investors were evaluating Joe Biden’s US economic recovery plan, quarterly results of major US banks and mixed macroeconomic data. Plus the uncertainty to the markets was added by the long weekend in the USA and the return of A. Navalny on January 17. On Monday, January 18, in Asian trading, the dollar is trading in positive territory against major currencies. Oil fell to $ 54.54. On Forex for 1 dollar they give 73.68 rubles. It is a little strange to see the course at this level after the arrest of Alexei Navalny at the Moscow airport “Sheremetyevo” after his return from Berlin. The FPS stated that the reason for the detention was multiple violations of the conditions of the probationary period. The further measure of restraint will be determined by the court. Until the court ruling, he will remain in custody. The US and the European Union spoke sharply against the Russian authorities after his arrest. Considering that the oil price is declining, the risks of new sanctions against Russia have increased, and from the opening the dollar / ruble pair is expected to rise to the level of 74.50 rubles. At the very least, the opening of the market will show whether investors care about Navalny’s detention or not. In addition, today is a national holiday in the United States – Martin Luther King Day. Volumes in the American session will be reduced, therefore, news about the coronavirus and Navalny will provide news on the ruble pairs. The Russian stock market ended Friday lower on the back of the weakening ruble and the decline in oil prices. As a result of trading, the Moscow Exchange index amounted to 3450.95 points (-1.14%), the RTS index – 1474.28 points (-1.75%). The first signs of a global correction have appeared. It is enough for the Moscow Exchange index to gain a foothold below 3415 points, its fall will accelerate against the background of profit-taking on long positions in shares. Since after the detention of A. Navalny, the ruble is expected to weaken against foreign currencies, then according to the Moscow Exchange index, we can consider a fall to 3420 points. On the RTS index, support is at the level of 1460 points. If trading in Europe opens with an increase in the dollar index, and the fall in oil prices accelerates, the RTS index will move to the level of 1435 ._____________________ Vladislav Antonov, Analyst, IAC Alpari

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