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The ruble was able to end the past week in positive territory



The ruble was able to finish last week in positive territory despite Friday’s drawdown. The dollar / ruble pair closed at 73.50 rubles, but already at the beginning of the new five-day trading week resumed its rise, rushing north with renewed vigor. In the course of recent trading, quotations exceeded the level of 74 rubles. Marked at local highs in the region of 74.20 rubles. The pressure on the Russian currency is exerted by several factors. Firstly, the dollar continues to advance in the forex market, updating five-week highs in pairs with its main competitors. Investors continue to worry about the pandemic, doubt the effectiveness and timing of vaccinations, which in turn darkens the forecasts for economic recovery. The negative was somewhat brightened up by today’s data from China, reflecting the faster-than-expected growth rate of the second-largest economy in the fourth quarter. However, this was not enough to restore optimism to the players. Second, after a pullback from almost one-year highs, oil remains under pressure, although it is still holding above the 20-day moving average, which acts as a key support. Black gold is under pressure from general risk aversion, a strengthening dollar and an increase in the number of active drilling in the US Third, since the beginning of the week, there has been an exacerbation on the geopolitical front. Navalny, who returned to Moscow yesterday, was arrested, which caused a wave of outrage from Western countries. Moreover, the Baltic countries have already called on the EU to impose sanctions against Russia in connection with this situation. In the coming days, this factor may increase the pressure on the ruble, and in such conditions, it seems that it will not be necessary to count on tangible support for the tax period ._________________ Mikhail Kogan, Head of Analytical Research, Higher School of Financial Management

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