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The Russian stock market grew by more than 1%



Last Thursday, the Russian stock indices MosExchange (+ 0.85%) and RTS (+ 1.13%) completed the main trading with a fairly strong increase in relation to the levels of the previous close. At the end of the evening session, the Moscow Exchange (IMOEX2) index rose 1.41%. The positive morning external background allowed the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices to open with a noticeable gap up. Later, they strengthened their growth with the support of higher prices for Brent oil futures, which managed to renew their annual maximum once again. In the evening, the local stock market received significant support from the US stock indices, thus halting its two-week decline in the second half of January. It would be premature to expect a quick return of the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices to their recent highs. Now, they are more likely to move into a state of medium-term consolidation near current levels. Among the significant external events, it should be noted the evening statement by US President Joe Biden during his keynote speech on foreign policy. He said the US would make Russia “pay” for its actions. Thus, the threat of tougher external sanctions against the Russian Federation will remain relevant for the next several years. This will not benefit the local stock market and the rate of the domestic currency. By the close of the evening trading session, the March futures on the RTS Index (RIH1) entered a contango state of 11.1 p. Or about 0.8% against the underlying indicator. Derivatives market participants have significantly improved their assessment of the medium-term prospects of the RTS index. Despite a fairly strong increase in the Moscow Exchange index at the end of the day and evening trading sessions, the most liquid stocks closed with an uneven multidirectional deviation within 1-3%. promote active purchases in the relevant securities. But only Lukoil (LKOH RM, + 2.60%), Gazprom Neft (SIBN RM, + 2.31%) and Bashneft-up (BANEP RM, + 1.53%) showed outstripping growth in their sector. Investors and speculators are clearly cautious. Probably, traders doubt that Brent oil futures will be able to quickly and easily overcome the nearest significant price level of $ 60 per barrel. The indicated mark could become a serious resistance for these contracts. Noticeably stronger than the market closed securities of Sberbank-jsc (SBER RM, + 2.50%), Sberbank-up (SBERP RM, + 2.10%). As usual, they were seriously supported by a significant strengthening of the rate of the domestic currency, which took place in the first half of the day. Today, the issuer’s financial statements under RAS for January are scheduled to be published. Overall, Sberbank is showing encouraging financial results given the current coronavirus downturn in the economy. The lending institution’s net profit under RAS for 2020 decreased by 7.7% to RUB 781.6 billion. For comparison, according to preliminary estimates, the net profit of VTB Bank (VTBR RM, + 1.03%) for 2020 according to RAS may decrease 3.7 times, to 56.1 billion rubles. Aeroflot shares (AFLT RM, -0.17%) failed to rise along with the market against the background of the publication of the expectedly weak financial statements of the issuer under RAS. The airline’s net loss amounted to RUB 30.9 billion. for the 4th quarter of 2020 and 96.5 billion rubles. for the entire 2020. Thus, Aeroflot’s annual loss turned out to be more than the amount of funds raised by the company in the course of a large additional share issue in the amount of about 80 billion rubles. As a reminder, this year the airline’s capital was increased by 2.2 times to support the company’s activities in the face of a sharp decline in passenger air traffic. Polymetal (POLY RM, -2.12%), Polyus (PLZL RM, -1.00%) also closed significantly weaker than the market. ), NLMK (NLMK RM, -0.41%), FIVE-gdr (FIVE RM, -1.77%), Alrosa (ALRS RM, -1.01%), Rusal JSC (RUAL RM, -1.77%), Raspadskaya (RASP RM, -1.11%), Petropavlovsk PLC (POGR RM, -1.88%). As we can see, the shares of mining companies, which are not related to the oil and gas sector, were mainly sold off. This morning, futures for US stock indices are showing a moderate increase in value of about 0.2-0.3%. Brent crude oil contracts rose 0.7%. Gold futures added 0.4%. The Chinese stock index Shanghai Composite gained 0.3%. Japanese Nikkei225 gained 1.4%. The state of the external background before the start of trading in Russia can be described as moderately positive. This creates conditions for the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with some gain. We expect the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with an increase in the range of 0.2-0.5% in the area of ​​3380-3390 p. The next support for it will be the levels of 3370, 3350 p. Significant resistance will be marks 3400, 3420 p. In the first minutes of trading, the Moscow Exchange index will play out a moderate morning improvement in the external background. Later, it is able to continue to rise to the nearest significant level of 3400 p. And stabilize around the indicated mark. In the afternoon, local trading participants will habitually focus on the dynamics of oil futures and the nature of the opening of the stock market overseas. The publication of a large block of statistical data in the USA may have an indirect impact on the Moscow Exchange index. It will include a number of indicators characterizing the state of the labor market (16.30 Moscow time) .___________________ Vitaly Manzhos, Senior Risk Manager, Investment Company Algo Capital

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