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The Russian stock market is giving positive signals



Last Wednesday, the Russian stock indices MosExchange (+ 0.18%) and RTS (+ 0.19%) completed the main trading with a slight increase in relation to the levels of the previous close. At the end of the evening session, the Moscow Exchange index (IMOEX2) increased by 0.55%. Thus, the ruble index of the Moscow Exchange, after recent multidirectional movements, temporarily stabilized around the nearest psychologically significant level of 3500 p. It still retains a positive medium-term technical picture. Meanwhile, in the first minutes During the main trading session, the local stock market sank noticeably, despite the mixed morning state of the external background. Apparently, at this moment we observed residual sales associated with the complication of the foreign policy background that took place the day before. However, the stock bulls quickly bought back this morning drawdown. For the rest of the day, the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices have consolidated near the previous close. Among the significant external statistics, it is worth noting yesterday’s publication of ambiguous weekly data on oil and oil products from the US Department of Energy. The significant decline in crude oil inventories by 3.5 million barrels was fully offset by a total weekly increase in gasoline and distillate inventories by almost 5.5 million barrels. After the release of these statistics, oil futures showed a false fall, which was replaced by a recovery in the middle part of the intraday range. Interesting news was the announcement that the video conferencing service Zoom will stop providing its services to Russian government agencies and organizations with government beneficiaries. Industry experts suggest that the reason for this decision is the risks of secondary sanctions from the United States. Replacing this service with its counterparts is not a big problem. However, this can become the first sign of the widespread use of a new form of indirect external restrictive measures against the Russian Federation. They can be very painful, including for large companies with state participation. On Thursday morning, June futures on the RTS Index (RIM1) traded in a backwardation state of 11 points, or about 0.8% versus the benchmark. Over the past day, derivatives market participants somewhat softened their negative assessment of the medium-term prospects of the RTS index. Against the background of a moderate increase in the Moscow Exchange index following the main and evening trading sessions, the most liquid shares closed mainly with an increase within 1-3%. Among blue chips, shares looked much stronger than the market. VTB (VTBR RM, + 2.80%). After a one-day break, these securities resumed their rise, which had begun at the end of March. We have already said that the opening of “short” positions in them at the current level is associated with an increased risk. In the coming days, new attempts to enter these securities in the area of ​​0.045 rubles are not excluded. In the event of a breakdown of this mark in them, it is likely that a massive triggering of stop orders to buy is likely. From a fundamental point of view, VTB shares began to look more attractive after the recent announcement by the issuer of an increase in the net profit of VTB Group for 2 months 2021 according to IFRS by 50.5% in comparison with the same indicator last year. The specified indicator amounted to 58.4 billion rubles. By the way, the securities of Sberbank-Jsc (SBER RM, + 0.88%), Sberbank-up (SBERP RM, + 0.55%) yesterday limited themselves to a more modest increase. An obstacle to their increase was a strong intraday weakening of the ruble. These stocks are usually very sensitive to this factor. Meanwhile, in March 2021, Sberbank recorded a record monthly net profit under RAS in the amount of 103.3 billion rubles. And for the 1st quarter of 2021, the bank’s net profit increased by 29.2%, to the level of 282.5 billion rubles. Continuing the conversation about bank shares, we note the one-day weakness of TCS-gdr securities (TCSG RM, -2.33%). It became known yesterday that TCS Group plans to increase its net profit by more than 20% in the coming years. Its goal is now an annual net profit of 75 billion rubles ($ 1 billion) at the end of 2023. This news was the reason for the retreat of these securities from the recent historical maximum. Since the beginning of this year, they have risen in price by 2 times and now look expensive at the current level. This morning, futures for US stock indices show an uneven increase in value within 0.2-0.8%. Brent crude oil contracts fell 0.7%. Gold futures added 0.1%. The Chinese stock index Shanghai Composite rose 0.3%. Japanese Nikkei225 slipped 0.2%. The state of the external background before the start of trading in Russia can again be described as uncertain or mixed. This creates conditions for the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a restrained deviation. We expect the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a moderate change in the range of 0.1-0.3%, in the range of 3490-3510 p. The levels of 3480, 3460 p. Will again act as the nearest support for it. Significant resistance will remain marks 3520, 3540 p. After opening with a restrained deviation, the Moscow Exchange index with a high degree of probability will go into a state of consolidation. The mixed external background is not yet conducive to its directional movement. In the second half of the day, Russian traders will habitually focus on the dynamics of oil prices and the nature of the opening of the stock market overseas. The publication of weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States (15.30 Moscow time) may have an indirect impact on the Moscow Exchange index .____________________ Vitaly Manzhos, Senior Risk Manager, Algo Capital Investment Company

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