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The Russian stock market is in no hurry to continue to grow



Last Wednesday, the Russian stock indices MosExchange (-0.04%) and RTS (+ 0.12%) completed the main trading with a slight deviation in relation to the levels of the previous close. At the end of the evening session, the Moscow Exchange (IMOEX2) index dropped by 0.19%. Thus, the local stock market spent yesterday in a state of consolidation within a relatively narrow range. In the first minutes of trading, he won back the improved state of the external background. However, morning purchases in the shares of Russian companies did not continue. Later, the activity of stock exchange bulls was restrained by the ambiguous dynamics of oil futures and Western stock indices. The accumulated medium-term overbought of the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices also played an unfavorable role. Continuing the conversation about oil quotes, it should be noted that the contracts for Brent crude yesterday once again renewed their multi-month maximum and turned down from $ 57.4 per barrel. Their short-term downward movement still looks like a natural corrective decline. Industry statistics yesterday were mixed. Weekly data from the US Department of Energy indicated a significant reduction in crude oil reserves overseas by 3.2 million barrels. But at the same time, stocks of gasoline and distillates have increased by almost 9.2 million barrels. Among the significant external events, let us pay attention to the news that the US House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump. However, there will not be enough time for further promotion and implementation of this initiative. Newly elected US President Joe Biden is due to take office in the middle of next week. Significant news for Russian traders was the announcement that the RF Ministry of Finance resumes purchases of foreign currency on the domestic market within the framework of the budget rule. The volume of its acquisition in the period from January 15 to February 4 will be 7.1 billion rubles. At the close of the evening trading session, the March futures on the RTS Index (RIH1) came to a contango state of 7.3 p. or about 0.5% against the underlying indicator. Derivatives market participants retain a moderately positive assessment of the medium-term prospects of the RTS Index. Against the background of a slight decrease in the Moscow Exchange index following the day and evening trading sessions, the most liquid shares closed with an uneven multidirectional deviation within 1-5%. Sberbank-Jsc stood out among blue chips. (SBER RM, -2.14%), Sberbank-up (SBERP RM, -1.85%). Their weakness yesterday was largely due to technical factors. These shares saw profit-taking after the recent renewal of all-time highs. Alrosa (ALRS RM, -1.24%) saw a sell-off following the release of expected strong sales by the issuer in December 2020. Monthly diamond sales totaled $ 521.6 million. Recall that the state of the global diamond market began to deteriorate even before the unexpected global outbreak of the coronavirus. Now the worst times are over. However, Alrosa’s annual sales fell 16% to $ 2.802 billion. MMK (MAGN RM, -5.38%) opened with an expected gap down and continued to fall. Yesterday they had a dividend gap. Interim payments to shareholders for the 3rd quarter will amount to RUB 2,391. per share, or about 4.1% of their closing price last Tuesday. Rosneft (ROSN RM, + 2.43%) was one of the few liquid securities that rose in price. Over the past year, they look stronger than their sector. This is largely due to the current open market buyback program for these securities. Yesterday, they renewed their maximum value since October 2018. The shares of Novatek (NVTK RM, + 1.76%), Tatneft-up (TATNP RM, + 1.78%), Mechel-JSC (MTLR RM, + 7.48%) also closed significantly stronger than the market. , Mechel-up (MTLRP RM, + 3.03%), OrgSint-up (KZOSP RM, +23.91%) This morning, futures on US stock indices are showing a multidirectional deviation in value within 0.3%. Brent crude oil contracts fell 0.3%. Gold futures lost 0.7%. The Chinese stock index Shanghai Composite dropped 0.6%. Japanese Nikkei225 gained 0.7%. The state of the external background before the start of trading in Russia can be described as ambiguous or mixed. This creates conditions for the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with an insignificant deviation. We expect the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a moderate deviation in the range of 0.1-0.3%, in the region of 3460-3480 p. The levels of 3450, 3440 p. Will be significant resistance levels. 3500, 3520 p. After a close to neutral opening, the Moscow Exchange index with a high degree of probability will continue its consolidation yesterday. This is facilitated by the mixed morning state of the external background. In the afternoon, local traders will habitually focus on the dynamics of oil futures and the nature of the opening of the US stock market. The publication of weekly statistics on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States (16.30 Moscow time) may have an indirect impact on Russian indices. ___________________ Vitaly Manzhos, Senior Risk Manager, Investment Company Algo Capital

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