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The Russian stock market started the week with a confident growth within 1.5%



Last Monday, the Russian stock indices MosExchange (+ 1.57%) and RTS (+ 2.13%) finished the main trading with a strong increase in relation to the levels of the previous close. As a result of the evening session, the Moscow Exchange (IMOEX2) index rose by 1.82%. As in the course of previous trading, the main growth of the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices was formed at the time of the opening of the local stock market. The key incentive for purchases in securities of Russian companies was the continued increase in the value of contracts for “black gold”. Yesterday, Brent oil futures managed to confidently exceed the important psychological and technical level of $ 60 per barrel. Thus, these contracts have now moved into the higher mid-term price range of $ 60- $ 65. This is facilitated by strong demand for oil from China. An additional indirect sign of the improvement in the state of the global oil industry were reports of the beginning of an active recovery in shale production in the United States. At current prices for hydrocarbons, this technology is once again becoming profitable. Now the North American shale industry is once again starting to compete with traditional oil and natural gas companies. Key stock indices in Europe and the US yesterday showed relatively modest gains, which did not exceed 1%. Overall, however, the mood in Western equity markets was clearly positive. They were encouraged by the President’s promise to “act quickly” to save the American economy. It continues to promote a stimulus package worth about $ 1.9 trillion. At the close of the evening trading session, the March futures on the RTS Index (RIH1) came in a state of slight backwardation at 2.1 p. Or about 0.15% against the benchmark. Thus, participants in the derivatives market remain close to a neutral assessment of the medium-term prospects of the RTS index. Against the background of a strong increase in the Moscow Exchange index following the day and evening trading sessions, the most liquid stocks closed mainly with an increase of 1-10%. Another update of multi-month highs in oil futures. contributed to the continuation of purchases in shares of oil and gas companies: Gazprom (GAZP RM, + 2.70%), Tatneft-jsc (TATN RM, + 2.96%), Tatneft-up (TATNP RM, + 3.33%), Surgutneftegaz-jsc (SNGS RM, + 1.86%), Gazprom Neft (SIBN RM, + 2.43%). Interest in Gazprom’s shares was further fueled by the news of the resumption of laying the Nord Stream 2 export gas pipeline in Danish waters. In the evening, the news came out that the work is scheduled to be completed by the end of April. Shares of Magnit (MGNТ RM, + 2.23%) were in demand amid reports that the retail chain increased its annual food production at its own enterprises by 30%, to a record level in 310 thousand tons. Expanding the production of private label goods means increasing the level of business profitability. From a technical point of view, we are seeing in the shares of “Magnit” another attempt to move up from the nearest significant price level of 5000 rubles. It has been a point of attraction for these securities since the second half of January. A notable event in the second tier was the continued aggressive buying in OZON-adr (OZON RM, + 6.86%). The Internet retailer’s receipts also pulled up the shares of rival company M.Video (MVID RM, + 9.61%), which renewed their historical maximum at unusually high turnovers. However, after such a strong one-day movement, they run the risk of not staying at the achieved levels. Noticeably weaker than the market traded many securities of gold mining companies: Polyus (PLZL RM, -0.34%), Polymetal (POLY RM, + 0.36%), Petropavlovsk PLC (POGR RM, – 0.09%), Lenzoloto-ao (LNZL RM, -0.11%), Lenzoloto-up (LNZLP RM, -0.72%). In times of general improvement in market sentiment, precious metals stocks are generally out of demand, and gold futures have recently hit their two-month low. However, they retain the potential for appreciation this year in connection with the upcoming launch of the American Economic Rescue Plan. One of its indirect consequences will be an additional inflow of dollar liquidity to financial markets. This morning, futures for US stock indices are uncertainly balancing on the verge of positive and negative changes. Brent crude oil contracts rose 0.8%. Gold futures added 0.4%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index added 1.2%. Japanese Nikkei225 gained 0.2%. The state of the external background before the start of trading in Russia can be described as moderately positive. This creates conditions for the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a moderate gain. We expect the opening of the Moscow Exchange index with a slight increase in the range of 0.1-0.3%, near 3450 p. The levels of 3430, 3420 p. Will serve as the nearest support for it. Significant resistance will be at 3470, 3480 p. After opening with a minimum increase, the Moscow Exchange index is likely to go into a state of consolidation. The morning improvement in the external background is not yet significant enough to stimulate the continuation of active purchases in the shares of Russian companies. In the afternoon, local traders will habitually focus on the dynamics of oil prices and the nature of the opening of the US stock market. An indirect impact on Russian stock indices can be exerted by the publication of December statistics on the number of open vacancies in the labor market in the USA (18.00 Moscow time) ._________________ Vitaly Manzhos, Senior Risk Manager, Algo Capital Investment Company

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