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The stock market is overheated and doesn’t take risks into account

Despite the fact that in recent days the global stock exchanges have shown insufficiently confident dynamics, trading in a multidirectional format, most of the leading indices are held near record or long-term highs, and attempts of a downward correction are restrained. The Russian market is also holding up well, striving for new heights. The main driver of purchases in the segment of risky assets at this stage is the expectation of the announcement of stimulus in the United States, which, according to the latest rumors, will turn out to be even more generous than previously assumed. In this context, investors are betting on a more lively process of economic recovery from the pandemic crisis. Also, market participants are able to largely ignore the continued increase in the number of people infected with the virus due to the hopes for an effective and prompt mass vaccination around the world and, accordingly, the gradual complete abolition of lockdowns. which inhibit economic growth by pushing governments and central banks to provide support. Longer-term risk factors are that the vaccination process may fall short of expectations, in terms of both speed and efficiency, especially as the virus mutates. This risk is not factored into prices at this stage; moreover, the pandemic continues and even sets new records in certain regions, forcing governments to think about extending the restrictions. Against the background of this uncertainty factor, the current stock quotes look overestimated, which means that in case of a negative scenario, the stock markets may suffer a very painful correction .________________ Mikhail Dorofeev, Chairman of the Management Board.

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