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Forex Traiding

what legacy will the current US president leave to the Republicans?



DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2021-01-07 03: 07: 244-hour timeframe Technical data: Major linear regression channel: upward direction. Lower linear regression channel: upward direction. Moving average (20; smoothed) – upward. СCI: 90.8796 Currency the EUR / USD pair on Wednesday, January 6, calmly continued its upward movement. The quotes have once again renewed their 2.5-year highs and do not want to move far from them. Thus, the onward upward movement continues. Throughout almost the entire term of Donald Trump’s presidency, we criticized the actions and statements of the American president. Not because we do not like him, but because his actions and, especially, statements were often devoid of any logic, sometimes absurd to the point of impossibility, and sometimes even contradicted common sense. We already wrote earlier that Donald Trump ran the country like his own business. And running a business empire and a country are slightly different things. As a result, now the whole world can observe where the manner of doing business led Donald Trump, and at the same time all of his supporters, a certain part of whom no longer support Trump themselves (although it does not go into open conflict either). We will not now list all of America’s failures over the past four years. It is only worth noting that most of the goals that Trump voiced in 2016 were not achieved. So, personally, from our point of view, it is absolutely fair that Trump is leaving. He did not return American production to the United States, his trade war with China did not bring the desired results, China’s position in the international arena only strengthened during the Trump era, and “thanks to” the “coronavirus” may become even stronger. Donald Trump himself suffered a crushing defeat in the elections. For the difference in the number of votes with Democrat Joe Biden is about 7 million. And this is quite a big difference. But the fact that Donald Trump would not be re-elected for a second term was clear even before the election. Biden’s win rates were up to 90%. And most importantly, Joe Biden did nothing supernatural in order to win the election. He simply drew the attention of the electorate to Trump’s failures, while he himself seemed to be clean before the American nation. As a result, the election “Donald Trump – anyone but Donald Trump” was naturally not won by a Republican. Republicans in the same elections also failed to regain the lower house of the US Congress. They consolidated their position in it, but failed to achieve a majority. Thus, the President of the country will be a Democrat, the House of Representatives will be controlled by Democrats, there is only one open question: who will control the Senate? And here, at first glance, everything seemed obvious. At least until the day before yesterday, no one even discussed the election in the one state of Georgia, in which the first round of elections to the Senate did not reveal the winners. None of the 4 candidates received more than 50% of the votes. On January 6, the second round of elections took place. And in the primordial republican state there is a tendency to vote for Democrats … In order to understand the importance of the state of Georgia, it should be clearly understood that there are exactly 100 seats in the Senate. 50 seats have already been secured for themselves by Republicans, thus, victory in Georgia for any candidate from the Republican Party will bring them control of the Senate as a consolation prize. However, yesterday John Ossoff and Rafael Warnock – Democrats were leading in the voting. And if it is they who win (although the gap from their opponents from the Republican Party is minimal, so it is not a fact yet), this will mean that the seats in the Senate will be split 50/50. But that’s not all! The distribution of forces in the Senate 50/50 will mean the victory … of the Democrats. Because with any equality of votes, according to US law, the (future) US Vice President Kamala Harris will have a decisive vote. It’s the same as if the Democrats had a majority in the Senate. Thus, Republicans can lose everything in the 2020 elections. And they will need to thank only Donald Trump for this. Because there is no one else. Thus, we can once again draw a conclusion about how it is necessary or not to govern the country. This is an object lesson to Boris Johnson, who often resembles Trump in his style of government. Although Johnson is not a businessman like Trump, he often tries to negotiate from a position of strength and is guided by the principle of “either the way I want or not.” True, Johnson still yields in the end, as evidenced by the trade deal concluded with the European Union. Without London’s concessions, there would be no deal, and the US dollar, meanwhile, continues to almost free-fall. No, the American currency does not lose 100 points per day. It decreases systematically. But this fall is stable and practically recoilless. We wrote about the absence of a tangible and commensurate correction a few months ago, when the euro / dollar pair was in a flat for about 4 months. Even then, it was clear that there was no demand for the US dollar. And it is absent to such an extent that the pair cannot even correct after a sufficiently strong upward movement. Now, the dollar has continued to fall since November 4 (it is very symbolic, because there were elections on November 3). During this time, the pair “plowed” up 720 points. The maximum correction for these two months was 170 points and lasted for three days … And despite the fact that there were no apparent reasons for the strengthening of the euro, the upward trend persists and, accordingly, one should continue to trade upward. At least this is logical. As for the technical picture, both linear regression channels are directed upward, as well as the moving average line. Not a single price fixing below the moving average did not lead to a noticeable drop in the pair. Thus, the upward trend is beyond doubt. The volatility of the euro / dollar currency pair as of January 7 is 76 points and is characterized as “average”. Thus, we expect the pair to move between the levels 1.2236 and 1.2388 today. An upward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator may signal a new round of upward movement. The nearest support levels: S1 – 1.2207S2 – 1.2085S3 – 1.1963 The closest resistance levels: R1 – 1.2329R2 – 1.2451R3 – 1.2573 Trading recommendations: EUR pair / USD started a new round of correction. Thus, today it is recommended to open new long positions with the target of 1.2388, if the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upwards or the price bounces off the MA. It is recommended to open new sell orders if the pair consolidates below the moving average, with targets at 1.2236 and 1.2207. Recommended reading: An overview of the GBP / USD pair. Jan. 7. The paradoxical US dollar continues to trade by its own rules. “Coronavirus” anti-records in Great Britain. Trading signals, COT report: Forecast and trading signals for the EUR / USD pair for November 7. Forecast and trading signals for the GBP / USD pair for November 7. Material provided by InstaForex – www.instaforex.com Source – InstaForex

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