Let’s look at the situation without geopolitical blinders.
In today’s conditions, the non-cash currency of “unfriendly” countries is really needed only by importers, private borrowers in this currency and … exchange speculators. Why only private borrowers? Because the state has already announced: we will not be able to pay in foreign currency for one reason or another, we will pay in rubles at the exchange rate. Well, let experts evaluate the payments of borrowers, I’m too lazy to look for information on this issue.
What about the banks, the Central Bank? Well, under the sanctions, for them, a non-cash dollar is a “spherical horse in a vacuum.” You can’t give credit, you can’t buy assets. Where to put that record in the database?
But with imports, the situation for the currencies of “unfriendly” countries is “awful”. Why? According to the Federal Customs Service, 30%+ of imports to Russia in 2000-2021 in dollar terms are “machinery and equipment without cars”, and about 10% more are “cars”. With these positions, everything is bad both because of the sanctions and because of the logistics. Additional import problems for these currencies were added by Chinese banks, which de facto closed dollar and euro letters of credit for Russian importers, offering yuan instead. That is, putting importers in front of the need to pay in yuan.
I don’t know about “workarounds”, but on traditional routes, imports in these categories when paid in dollars and euros will be reduced by at least 80%, which is equivalent to a drop in demand for these currencies from importers by about 25%. And this is without taking into account the import of consumer goods from China, which, for the reason indicated above, will also go into yuan. Unfortunately, it is impossible to estimate this according to the FCS data, since the categories “electronics” in imports, which account for approximately 15% in dollar terms, and “spare parts and components” (~10% in dollar terms), are not broken down by country. But I think that China’s share in these categories is rather big.
Therefore, a “rough” drop in demand from importers for the dollar and the euro can be safely estimated at 30%, at least.
What about stock speculators? Well, they are just more attractive not spot, but futures.
What about cash dollars and euros? Well, two categories really need them: those traveling abroad and smugglers. I don’t know about the latter, maybe someone will “enlighten” in the comments. Well, and also citizens who are stuck in the 90s, believing that the dollar “under the pillow” saves from inflation. For the latter, I simply advise you to remember school arithmetic and compare the exchange rate and official inflation, so, from the end of 1992. Learn a lot.
With the cash dollar and euro, again, there are problems purely because of sanctions from there: a ban on the supply of cash to Russia. Well, this will mean that as long as there are many who want to go abroad, the “rate” of cash will be higher than the rate of non-cash. The truth for “making money on the stock exchange” is a completely different story.
And what is the conclusion? And it is simple: there is no reason for the non-cash dollar and euro to strengthen much against the ruble. At least until the advent of major “workarounds”. Therefore, you can forget about the dollar for 100 until the fall. Well, 80 and speculators can endure, as well as lower it to 50. This is how we live.