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Why is the weak ruble in Russia, the reasons became known



The fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, which are now taking place, do not have a significant impact on economic stability in Russia, said the presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov. However, in fact, the fate of the ruble worries many. In my opinion, Russia needs a strong ruble, and for this the Bank of Russia must quickly bring the key rate to an adequate level. It is not worth repeating the mistakes of the Bank of Turkey, which, with its inadequate monetary policy, brought down the Turkish lira and, taking into account its own obligations, actually zeroed out its international reserves. Recently, the first step towards the strong ruble was made – the key rate was raised from 4.25% to 4.5%. The Bank of Russia on April 23 is likely to raise the rate by 0.5%, from 4.5% to 5%. Annual inflation in March is 5.7%. A fair level of the key rate is 6-8%, and the sooner the main monetary indicator of Russia is in this corridor, the better. However, the problem is that this situation – expensive oil and cheap ruble – is very beneficial for oil exporters and the budget. Therefore, the Bank of Russia is not going to switch to a strong ruble policy. It would also be nice to abolish the budget rule, under which the Ministry of Finance buys foreign currency with unplanned oil revenues. What is playing against the ruble? Risks of new Western sanctions, fears of a conflict in eastern Ukraine, and falling demand for Russian sovereign debt. The share of non-resident investments in the state debt of the Russian Federation fell below 20%. A year ago, the share of foreigners in OFZs was at an all-time high – 34.9% of total investments in Russian government debt. Foreign investors began to massively withdraw from the assets of developing countries amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The opening of borders and the restoration of world tourism can also play against the ruble. In the near future, until the end of April, we see the following benchmarks: 76-78 rubles. per dollar, 90-93 rubles. per euro ._______________ Alexander Razuvaev, Head, IAC “Alpari”

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